House prices could fall 4% this year
‘Average house prices could fall between 3% and 4% this year as a result of Brexit being triggered.’
The claim comes from online agent YOPA which has launched a ‘Brexit House Price Tracker’ that collates industry predictions and compares them to the indices from Halifax, Nationwide, Rightmove and the Land Registry.
Predictions have been taken from commentators including buying agent Henry Pryor, who predicts a 2% increase this year, as do Rightmove and Nationwide experts.
The tracker, which will be regularly updated, also uses predictions from Ray Boulger at John Charcol mortgage brokers, who thinks there will be a 1% increase, while Martin Ellis of Halifax has gone for between 1% and 4%.
YOPA has then taken an average of these predictions to predict 1.2% average growth.
However, the agent has pointed out that the Halifax house price index for January showed a 1.1% monthly drop, followed by a 1.1% increase in February, while Nationwide recorded growth of just 0.2% and 0.6% over the same period.
A spokesman for YOPA said: “With Article 50 set to be invoked before the end of this month, many home owners and residents looking to get a foot on the property ladder are keenly watching how Brexit will affect the nation’s house prices.
“Looking at house price data over the past two years, we can see that all the major house price indices are showing a marked slowdown in growth since July 2016 – the month of the Brexit vote.
“It’s also been a rough start for 2017 with Nationwide, Halifax and Rightmove all showing a decline in house prices during January.
“In January, experts were predicting that 2017 would see a 1.2% increase in house prices, but using YOPA’s tracker we can see that so far this year house prices have actually declined.
“In fact, if 2017’s house prices continue at their same downward trajectory then we would be looking at a 3%-4% decline for the year.